We can gain a little insight from the Creative Arts Ceremony that took place. From that ceremony we can see there is plenty of love for True Detective and a surprising amount of love for Masters of Sex (deservedly so). We can also see that Orange is the New Black is a very strong contender to dethrone Modern Family and any other comedy hopefuls.
BUT ... the center of everything at this year's Emmy Awards is the spiraling Abyss of True Detective vs. the Heisenberg finale of Breaking Bad. The two shows are battling head to head in a number of huge categories, including Outstanding Lead Actor and Outstanding Drama ... without further ado, here are my predictions for all the Drama categories and the top Comedy.
Most Outstanding Comedy
Nominees: The Big Bang Theory; Orange is the New Black; Modern Family; Veep; Silicon Valley; Louie
Should win: Orange is the New Black
Will win: Orange is the New Black
The hotshot freshman takes down the longstanding top comedy.
Most Outstanding Television Movie
Nominees: The Normal Heart; Sherlock: His Last Vow; Killing Kennedy; The Trip to Bountiful; Muhammad Ali's Greatest Fight
Should win: Sherlock: His Last Vow
Will win: The Normal Heart
Sherlock was nearly perfect, but it won't be enough to take down the heavily favored HBO production The Normal Heart.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Nominees: Allison Tolman, Fargo; Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart; Frances Conroy, American Horror Story: Coven; Angela Bassett, American Horror Story: Coven; Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven; Ellen Burstyn, Flowers in the Attic
Should win: Allison Tolman
Will win: Julia Roberts
The voters will not be able to avoid the Hollywood pit and will leave a very deserving Tolman empty handed.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Nominees: Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart; Alfred Molina, The Normal Heart; Jim Parsons, The Normal Heart; Joe Mantello, The Normal Heart; Colin Hanks, Fargo; Martin Freeman, Sherlock: His Last Vow
Should win: Martin Freeman
Will win: Matt Bomer
Outstanding Actress in a Miniseries or Movie
Nominees: Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven; Sarah Paulson, American Horror Story: Coven; Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful; Kristen Wiig, The Spoils of Babylon; Minnie Driver, Return to Zero; Helena Bonham Carter, Burton & Taylor
Should win: Jessica Lange
Will win: Cicely Tyson
Lange is the best actress on television, by far, but the voters seem intent on erroneously recognizing Lifetime as a legit cable network.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie
Nominees: Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo; Martin Freeman, Fargo; Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart; Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: His Last Vow; Idris Elba, Luther; Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
Should win: Martin Freeman
Will win: Billy Bob Thornton
Thornton is certainly deserving, but Freeman as Lester Nygaard was the best single character on television this year.
Outstanding Miniseries
Nominees: Fargo; American Horror Story: Coven; Luther; Treme; The White Queen; Bonnie & Clyde
Should win: Fargo
Will win: Fargo
Fargo was simply too good. Horror Story had another very successful season, but the will be topped by the FX sibling.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama
Nominees: Josh Charles, The Good Wife; Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones; Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad; Jim Carter, Downton Abbey; Jon Voight, Ray Donovan; Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Should win: Peter Dinklage
Will win: Aaron Paul
Dinklage's dialogue at the end of Tyrion's trial should win him this award, but it likely won't. Paul and Pinkman will continue driving off into the sunset with the actor's third Emmy award.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama
Nominees: Christine Baranski, The Good Wife; Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey; Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad; Leana Headey, Game of Thrones; Christina Hendricks, Mad Men; Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Should win: Anna Gunn
Will win: Anna Gunn
This should be another win for Breaking Bad. It will be Gunn's second Emmy for the role, but her first that was deserved.
Outstanding Actress in a Drama
Nominees: Claire Danes, Homeland; Juliana Margulies, The Good Wife; Robin Wright, House of Cards; Lizzy Caplan, Masters of Sex; Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey; Kerry Washington, Scandal
Should win: Lizzy Caplan
Will win: Juliana Margulies
This is the most difficult category on the show. Danes carried a very subpar season of Homeland all by herself and kept it very watchable. Margulies performed fantastically as she always does. Wright was the early favorite and was central to keeping House of Cards from going off the rails. In the end though, Lizzy Caplan was just perfect in a difficult role. She should be staggered with a win on Monday, but Margulies will be taking the gold for a third time in her illustrious career.
Outstanding Actor in a Drama
Nominees: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad; Matthew McConaughey, True Detective; Woody Harrelson, True Detective; Jon Hamm, Made Man; Kevin Spacey, House of Cards; Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Should win: Bryan Cranston
Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Wow. Just wow. It is a coin flip. There is no real wrong answer. And as I write this I find myself changing my mind over and over again on who SHOULD win. In the end though, I think McConaughey grabs his second EGOT trophy this year by adding the Emmy to his Academy Award win for Dallas Buyers Club.
Outstanding Drama
Nominees: Breaking Bad, Mad Men, True Detective, Game of Thrones, House of Cards, Downton Abbey
Should win: Breaking Bad
Will win: Breaking Bad
This is not quite as close as the actor vote. I think that this one has shifted slowly to Breaking Bad over the last couple of months. It was a nearly perfect final eight episodes. As good as True Detective was, I think Breaking Bad gets the send off as one of the greatest dramas to ever come into our living rooms.
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