This Week's Top Three (Monday, 7/22/13 through Sunday, 7/28/13)

The summer has not disappointed as a couple of new shows have been fantastic (The Bridge and Ray Donovan) and a couple shows in their final seasons have been very intriguing as well (Burn Notice and Dexter). But all of those are being dwarfed right now by the acting and brilliance on AMC’s The Killing as viewers are begging for the announcement of a fourth season, even as the rating numbers stay a little on the paltry side.

           

3. Dexter, Episode 5, This Little Piggy. As the clock winds down on this excellent series the writers are doing a pretty good job of keeping us guessing where it is going. I thought they were going to let the “Brain Surgeon” serial killer get away in an attempt to keep that storyline going, but the fact that they killed him just five episodes into the season leaves me wondering where they are planning to go from here. The love/hate relationship between Dexter and Deb has been fantastic and has worked well, even if it is a little neurotic from episode to episode. But they have written it like this on purpose. It almost seems the only way that Dexter does not end up dead is to scoop Deb in his arms and run off together to never be found and that just does not seem plausible. That leaves him arrested or dying as the most likely solution to years of serial killing … and being watching down the stretch here to see if it will be Quinn, Batista, Deb, Deb’s new boss (seriously, why is Sean Patrick Flanery on this show if not for something major?), etc. For the last two seasons the show has struggled through and entire season just to get to a final 2 minutes, lets hope that they can pick up the pace and not just sludge through for whatever ending they have planned for their anti-hero.

2. Ray Donovan, Episode 5, The Golem. While I was looking forward to “The Bridge” and the upcoming AMC series “Low Winter Sun” with great anticipation, I almost forgot how good Showtime has gotten at the serial drama business. Ray Donovan was an afterthought for my summer viewing, but somehow it has become quite possibly the best show of the summer and is finding new ways to surprise every single week. Liev Schreiber has hit gold here and found a role that suits him completely and has already shown off some talents that his movie career had convinced me he did not have. The overall story is a simple one that has been carved out so perfectly. How can Ray Donovan be such a “fixer” — the best in the business — when he cannot even keep himself and his own family in shape? As he watches his only father — played so well by Jon Voight — try to ruin everything he has worked for, he finds himself losing touch with his brothers, his wife, his daughter and his son. As we learn more and more about Ray’s past Ray it becomes more and more murky who exactly is the “bad guy.” The closing scene this week, where Ray is crying in his apartment without knowing that his wife is there was fantastic. Her walking in and asking him who he is was just speaking for all the curious viewers wondering the same thing.

1. The Killing, Episode 10, Six Minutes. Simply put, The Killing is absolutely great television. If you gave up on The Killing after the drawn on, overacted, terribly soap opera-like second season … I don’t blame you. But that means you are missing the best TV comeback story in a long time. This show has been close to perfect this season, and the heart wrenching, perfectly executed episode ending with an innocent man choking to death while hanging from a noose was as gripping as television has been this summer. The Killing is going to struggle with the 2014 Emmys because — like The Bridge, Ray Donovan and Dexter — it is airing so early in the process. But make no mistake … the acting on this show is as good as it is on ANY other and the writing here has been golden. The episode-long back-and-forth between Detective Sarah Linden (Mireille Enos) and soon-to-be-executed inmate Ray Seward (Peter Sarsgaard) was impossible to turn away from. Gripping, one-on-one dialogue like this is what has helped AMC set itself as the standard for television dramas. Despite the Summer run, Sarsgaard has to be a virtual lock for serious Emmy consideration at this point and this episode should be the one every voter looks at come next May. The character simply could not have been better acted and the last 15 minutes simply could not have been executed any better. Next week’s two hour season-finale should be fantastic.

Honorable Mention: The Bridge, Episode 3, Rio.

My 2013 Emmy Roundup: Drama Series

My 2013 Emmy Roundup: Drama Series

After revealing my Top 10 dramas of the year yesterday, time to narrow down the field to the six nominations. The Emmys nominations are announced on Thursday, which gives us a full two months to discuss and predict before the awards ceremony!

Best Actress Drama

Should be: Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, Justified, and Mad Men

Will be: Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Homeland, Mad Men and The Good Wife

My winner: Mad Men

 Likely winner: Breaking Bad

What an unbelievable category. I could be very happy with any of my top 10 dramas getting a nod (realistically any of them but Sons of Anarchy could). But when it comes down to it, the six I chose I think are constructed the best from top to bottom for the course of the season. There seems to be many critics out there ready to give Breaking Bad its first Top Drama trophy, though it is a 50/50 split with Homeland to most. That is funny to me since I consider this past season of Breaking Bad to be its weakest (though still worthy of an Emmy nod) and Homeland’s second season seemed a little all over the place at times.

In the end, for me, the most complete show of the season was Mad Men. I find it very important for veteran shows to always stay true to their characters, and this season of Mad Men was all about staying true to its characters and reminding us all of why we fell in love with the drama back in Season 1.

If I was going to rank my six nominations from 1-6 it would be: Mad Men, Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones, Justified, Homeland, Breaking Bad.

As for the Academy: Breaking Bad and Homeland are the clear front runners, but last season everyone thought Breaking Bad was going to take over Mad Men at the top of the food chain and there was plenty of Downton Abbey buzz … all right up until The Emmys turned into Homeland’s coming out party. So, don’t bet on the favorites too heavily!

Dark horses: Game of Thrones has a real shot to steal this thing because of the buzz it was generating while the Emmy ballots were out. There is a slight advantage to airing while the ballots are going around. And Downton Abbey is a very well-liked show among the Emmy voters as it will no doubt continue to rack up a ton of nominations … can it finally spring the upset in the biggest category of the night?

My Top 10 Dramas This Year

So here it is … the most important category at the Emmy Awards. Top Drama Series. Last year was the first time that NO series was nominated from major American network television (Downton Abbey did get nominated for BBC/PBS), as the shift to cable for great TV was made complete. The Good Wife seems to be the only network show that has any chance to make a dent in the cable stalwarts this season.

Without further ado … here are my top 10 dramas of the season in alphabetical order.

Tomorrow, I will reveal what would be my six nominees and what I think will be the academy's nominees, one day before the Emmy Awards are announced.

Boardwalk Empire – I was very worried about Season 3 of Boardwalk Empire. The show had made a bold turn for Nucky Thompson (played expertly by Steve Buscemi) in having him kill fan favorite Jimmy Darmody at the end of Season 2 and it helped make that season spectacular. But without Darmody around, how could this show hold interest? They did it by introducing the sick and twisted Gyp Rosetti who gave newly-minted killer Thompson a serious adversary that was willing to do anything — and kill anyone — to end up on top. The love life of Nucky, Margaret, Owen and the suddenly alone Gillian Darmody was a distraction to the overall arc though and the show seems to regularly forget how good of an actor they have in Michael Kenneth Williams (who portrays Chalky White).

Breaking Bad ­– Season 5 of Breaking Bad opened with a fantastic scene on Walter’s birthday and the viewer left wondering, “What the hell?” The rest of the season took us on a roller-coaster ride to a wonderful final moment setting up the big head-to-head that fans had to have seen coming for years. There was some sketchy plot twists along the way (c’mon … the magnet, train heist and death of the superiorly trained henchman Mike all in an 8-episode arc?), but the show remains so superbly well acted that it is impossible to turn away.

Downton Abbey ­– This season of Downton Abbey was by far its best as death joined the fray seriously for the first time. The writers clearly did not know that they were going to lose one of their lead actors, so when he failed to extend his contract, we ended up with a two-death season in a show that has prided itself on avoiding the “gasp” endings so popular with shows these days. Somehow it worked perfectly though.  The acting on this show is vastly underrated and the superb one-liners delivered by Maggie Smith on a regular basis make for the funniest moments on dramatic television.

Game of Thrones – I must say, following Season 2’s boring almost repeat of Season 1 … I was not sure that Game of Thrones was going to hold my interest. I was ready to chalk it up to the crazy fanatics overhyping it and move on … then something crazy happened and we got what might have been the best show on television this year. Top to bottom, all the characters were written almost perfectly this season. Since they had to turn the super popular Peter Dinklage into a good guy (making Season 2 almost laughable following Season 1) … he delivered greatly throughout Season 3. Obviously the “Red Wedding” stole the thunder as the season’s moment (rightfully so) but there is so much going on and so much being well-acted and well-written right now that this show is a must watch next season just to keep up.

Homeland – Following a shocking Emmy sweep for Season 1, it was going to be very difficult for Homeland to live up to the well-deserved hype … and it performed admirably. I am often drawn to the best scenes to decide what the best shows were in a given season, and this season was full of fantastic scenes where two actors/actresses worked together and stole the show. Of course, the season was also filled with much more “suspension of disbelief” than we needed in the first season. What I love about Homeland is it clearly understands that its audience will keep up. It moves from storyline to storyline extremely quickly without dragging anything out because it knows the viewer has already figured out where it is going. I can’t tell you how many times I “figured out” what the rest of the season was going to be about only to see the show resolve the issue within and episode or two. That is difficult to do as a writer because you want to draw out your stories so you don’t run out of them … the top guys at Homeland are clearly not scared of running out of ideas.

Justified – While it has been nominated in numerous acting categories and has even taken home a couple of Emmys … no show on television is as vastly underrated as Justified. Timothy Olyphant’s portrayal as Raylan Givens is on par with Cranston as White and Hamm as Draper. As opposed to those other guys though, Givens is a clear good guy with some questionable tendencies. He has a haunting family past that was portrayed so perfectly throughout this season I would almost throw an Emmy at Olyphant if I did not think Hamm was so good this year. The show continues to run great story arcs around its two fantastic lead actors (Olyphant and the great Walton Goggins) and moves at a rapid pace while keeping one overall arc as the main attraction.

Mad Men – The critics seem to be getting bored with Don Draper’s antics, but this season was perfect in the Draper world for me and the critics who whined about Draper being “married” in Season 5 turned right around and whined about him “falling back to his ways” in Season 6. The last scene of Season 5 all but assured us of what Season 6 had in store for Draper, but what was done on the show this year was a slight touch of brilliance. They have kept the viewer invested in Draper and all of the people running around with him. They showed him falling deeper and deeper into the pit he so routinely falls into … and they gave us a life-changing moment that none of us believe will work for Draper. Having Sally see him for what he is was a HUGE moment for television this year. He finally realized that she would not see him as a workaholic father … but simply as a father who would rather be womanizing than see his kids. And it scares him because that is EXACTLY what he is. He takes being let go by HIS company in stride, scoops up his kids and sets up a final season where hopefully we can find ourselves desperately clinging to hope for Dick Whitman.

Sons of Anarchy – This show is ultraviolent … unbelievably so at times. This show is completely over the top. This show bounces all over the place. This show is motorcycles and guns first … story second. Those are the things all the negative critics say. And they are right. But it is remarkably good at all of those things while also telling a fantastic story that has arced not only for one or two seasons, but for five.  There is plenty of great television out there right now and there are many reasons people can point to Sons and say it is flawed. But, simply put, if every show on television had a new episode sitting on my DVR, SOA would be the first one I hit play on. I am eager to see what happens between Jax Teller and his treacherous stepfather Clay Morrow on a weekly basis. I want to know if Jax will get out and get away with his family or if he will die by the sword he has brought to so many throats. I want to believe that Morrow will realize the wrongs he has done and try to set them right all while knowing he absolutely cannot do that. And the motorcycles and violence … I can’t look away from any of that either.

The Americans – The best new show on television this year was The Americans. Sure, it did not have much going against it (House of Cards really is the only other strong newcomer) but it still provided a great season and has earned a second. This is another show that is superbly acted right down to the secondary roles, but it still lost its way a little in the middle of the season. I think it is tough to watch a period drama that is set in a period that so many of the viewers actually remember. The drama on this show is the tension between Keri Russell (Elizabeth Jennings) and Matthew Rhys (Peter Jennings) and how raising a family to serve Russia, while letting the children be “American” tears at every fabric of their being. All while a determined American agent, played expertly by Noah Emmerich, is living right across the street. There is plenty the writers can do with that without having to get to spy heavy on us. They seemed to have gotten back to that by the end of the season and I am eagerly awaiting Season 2.

The Good Wife – I keep trying to think of reasons that The Good Wife was not the best show on television this year … and frankly … I cannot come up with any. The storylines were perfectly executed. The acting is the best there is on television. And the show regularly gets “guest” actors and actresses that other shows would love to have. I think sometimes the writers and producers of TGW don’t realize that Alicia’s story alone is good enough to carry the show and they dragged on a terribly silly storyline involving the super talented Archie Panjabi (as Kalinda) for way too long at the beginning of the season, but outside of that there is little to complain about with this show. It is constant intrigue. Will the firm split? Will Diane leave for state Supreme Court seat? Will Alicia choose Will or Peter? Will Cary and Alicia leave Will? The story clearly closed the season with Will left all but alone … and it is going to be fantastic TV in the fall to see where his character goes from there.

Just missed the cut: The Walking Dead, House of Cards, Dexter

My 2013 Emmy Roundup: Drama Actors

The toughest categories to pick by far in the Emmy season are all of the best actor categories. There are as many as 15 deserving actors in the supporting actor category and there well more than six that deserve consideration in the best actor category, but we are going to struggle through narrowing down those lists right here …

Best Actor Drama

Should be: Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire), Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad), Jon Hamm (Mad Men), Kevin Spacey (House of Cards), Timothy Olyphant (Justified) and Matthew Rhys (The Americans)

Will be: Cranston, Hamm, Spacey, Olyphant, Jeff Daniels (The Newsroom) and Damien Lewis (Homeland)

My winner: Jon Hamm

Likely winner: Bryan Cranston

Wow, what a heavyweight category this is. It is going to be a massive battle just to be one of the six nominees and there is a good chance that Buscemi misses out on a nomination for the first time since starting Boardwalk Empire. The trophy is going to almost certainly go to one of two people, defending champ Damien Lewis or three-time champ Bryan Cranston. Personally, I thought Jon Hamm had one of his best seasons on Mad Men and I would give the slight nod to him over Cranston. In the end though, I think the voters are going to give Cranston his fourth top actor award.

Dark horse: Kevin Spacey was really good on House of Cards and House of Cards was great for about 7 episodes before it really lost its footing. That likely will cost him a shot at springing the Emmy upset. But he is a big name and since Lewis and Cranston have already taken home Emmys the voters may slide Spacey’s name to the top.

Best Supporting Actor Drama

Should be: Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones), Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad), Mandy Patinkin (Homeland), Alan Cumming (The Good Wife), Noah Emmerich (The Americans) and Walton Goggins (Justified)

Will be: Dinklage, Paul, Patinkin, Goggins, Sam Waterson (The Newsroom) and Corey Stoll (House of Cards)

My winner: Peter Dinklage

Likely winner: Aaron Paul

The only person who will be nominated that I would have a problem with is Sam Waterson because I don’t think he is even slightly essential to The Newsroom and I don’t particularly like the show as a whole.  I would love to Emmerich and David Morrissey (The Walking Dead) get recognition for their work on their shows, but they will likely get left in the abyss that is full of worthy Supporting Actor candidates. In the end, I think Aaron Paul is taking home another Emmy as he stole the show for a few scenes in Breaking Bad this year.

Dark horse: Mandy Patinkin was exceptional on Homeland this year (better than Danes and Lewis) and could sneak in and take the Emmy home. He seemed to be the favorite for a while, but the buzz has recently shifted back to Paul and Dinklage.

Best Guest Actor Drama

Should be: Nathan Lane (The Good Wife), Michael J. Fox (The Good Wife), Jimmy Smits (Sons of Anarchy), Ray Romano (Parenthood), Mike O’Malley (Justified) and Matthew Perry (The Good Wife)

Will be: Lane, Fox, Romano, Smits, Rupert Friend (Homeland) and Robert Morse (Mad Men)

Another tough category filled with strong contenders and past winners, but it is difficult to see anyone other than Michael J. Fox winning this award again (he won one for his work on Rescue Me).  This will be his 16^th Emmy nomination and he has yet to win for The Good Wife. Truth is, while he is a guest actor, he is an integral part of that show and this time around he will get the award. Nathan Lane will provide stiff competition and Romano was the best character on Parenthood this past year, so he could be in contention.

Dark horses: If The Good Wife does not take home this award then it would seem Romano is the only legit dark horse candidate. Jimmy Smits was excellent on Sons of Anarchy, but the Emmys have never been too fond of that show. Rupert Friend could slide his way to victory if there is another Homeland Emmy takeover.

My 2013 Emmy Roundup: Drama Actresses

Finally we make it to the big boys. I like the comedies. I like the TV movies and miniseries. But it is a Golden Age of television dramas and Emmy Awards matter when there are so many heavyweights out there. Cable has taken over the Emmy Awards as HBO and Showtime continue to churn out premium shows at premium channel prices. But AMC and FX continue to produce the best shows on television. Going to be a slugfest among these four networks in nearly every category.

We start our drama roundup with a look at the fine actresses that grace our screen every week. There are plenty of great performances week-in and week-out and the Best Actress contenders are very thankful that Jessica Lange is sitting down in the TV movie and miniseries category.

Here we go for the ladies …

Best Actress Drama

Should be: Claire Danes (Homeland), Julianna Marguiles (The Good Wife), Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey), Elisabeth Moss (Mad Men), Keri Russell (The Americans) and Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black)

Will be: Danes, Marguiles, Dockery, Moss, Kerry Washington (Scandal) and Connie Britton (Nashville)

My winner: Julianna Marguiles

Likely winner: Claire Danes

This category is going to come down to Claire Danes vs. Kerry Washington in the end … and that is kind of an absolute joke. Scandal is a “buzz” show and anybody who watches it knows that. Kerry Washington is nowhere near the league of Danes, Dockery, Moss or Marguiles. But it has buzz after a significant ratings improvement this year and because of the buzz, the pro-network voters could come out in full force to help Washington to the top.

Dark horse: Marguiles is my pick to win and is the only dark horse that has a chance to upset Danes or Washington in the category. Moss will once again be an also-ran despite probably her best performance this season on Mad Men.

Best Supporting Actress Drama

Should be: Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey), Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad), Christina Hendricks (Mad Men), Christine Baranski (The Good Wife), Morena Baccarin (Homeland) and Archie Panjabi (The Good Wife)

Will be: Smith, Gunn, Hendricks, Baranski, Baccarin and Monica Potter (Parenthood)

My winner: Maggie Smith

Likely winner: Maggie Smith

This will likely be another Emmy victory for Professor McGonagall, but Anna Gunn could definitely make a run at getting herself her first trophy. It was a very important season for Skylar on Breaking Bad and Gunn stood out more than she did in any other season.

Dark horse: Monica Potter has been getting a ton of critical love for her portrayal of a cancer-stricken mother on Parenthood and could sneak in for the win here. I personally like the show and like Potter’s performance, but to win an Emmy I think you need to go without the bald cap and actually shave your head.

Best Guest Actress Drama

Should be: Shirley MacLaine (Downton Abbey), Margo Martindale (The Americans), Carrie Preston (The Good Wife), Stockard Channing (The Good Wife), Abby Miller (Justified) and Diana Rigg (Game of Thrones)

Will be: MacLaine, Preston, Channing, Martindale, Miller and Jane Fonda (The Newsroom)

My winner: Margo Martindale

Likely winner: Jane Fonda

A couple of heavyweights will fight for this crown. Jane Fonda vs. Shirley MacLaine is what is going to come down to and former Emmy winner Margo Martindale might be left without even getting a nomination. The Good Wife will continue to dominate acting categories and continue to not win them and get shunned in the best drama category. I personally was not all that impressed with The Newsroom as a whole, or Jane Fonda individually, but the guest actor and actresses awards are often for movie stars to steal away.

Dark horses: Stockard Channing has the name recognition to pull off and upset here and if Game of Thrones is going to take home a handful of Emmys for what clearly was its best season, then Rigg is a strong dark horse candidate.

My 2013 Emmy Roundup: Made for TV miniseries/movies

Simply put … I wish that American Horror Story: Asylum was competing with the big boys in the Drama category because it was one of the five best shows on television this year. Unfortunately for AHS:A it has to go against a solid cast of made-for-television movies that could sweep a bunch of Emmy’s up.

Best Movie/Miniseries

Should be: American Horror Story: Asylum, Behind the Candelabra, Phil Spector, Top of the Lake, Parades End and The Hour

Will be: American Horror Story: Asylum, Behind the Candelabra, Phil Spector, Parades End, Political Animals and The Bible

My winner: American Horror Story: Asylum

Likely winner:  Behind the Candelabra

The Emmy voters are going to be too easily swayed by a biopic piece about Liberace starring two megastar actors. While AHS:A will still be nominated in numerous categories and take home some gold … this category is a virtual lock.

Dark horse: There is no dark horse here really. If Behind the Candelabra does not win then it would truly be one of the great Emmy upsets. AHS:A would be the only other choice.

Best Actor Movie/Miniseries

Should be: Michael Douglas (Behind the Candelabra), Al Pacino (Phil Spector), Benedict Cumberbatch (Parades End), Matt Damon (Behind the Candelabra) and Dominic West (The Hour)

Will be: Douglas, Pacino, Cumberbatch, Damon and Toby Jones (The Girl)

My winner: Al Pacino

Likely winner:  Michael Douglas

A bunch of Hollywood heavyweights here with Pacino, Douglas and Damon all battling new superstar Cumberbatch. There is virtually no chance anyone other than Douglas or Pacino walks out with the trophy.

Dark horses: There is definitely dark horse consideration for Damon and Cumberbatch here as both are getting a ton of buzz for their roles, but the Emmy’s love using these categories to give TV awards to movie stars … and Douglas and Pacino are about as large as life gets in Hollywood.

Best Actress Movies/Miniseries

Should be: Jessica Lange (American Horror Story: Asylum), Helen Mirren (Phil Spector), Elisabeth Moss (Top of the Lake), Rebecca Hall (Parades End) and Sigourney Weaver (Political Animals)

Will be: Lange,  Mirren, Moss, Weaver and Laura Linney (The Big C)

My winner: Lange

Likely winner: Lange

Another virtual slam-dunk as Lange is the best actress on television by a wide margin. This is where I really would like to see AHS:A go against the dramas, because Lange deserves more recognition for her weekly portrayals and her work in this season was simply spectacular.

Dark horse: Mirren was great in Phil Spector and still has the star power that voters like in this category. It would be an upset for sure, but Mirren could sneak in and take the trophy home.

Best Supporting Actor Movie/Miniseries

Should be: James Cromwell (American Horror Story: Asylum), Zachary Quinto (American Horror Story: Asylum), Jeffrey Tambor (Phil Spector), Peter Mullan (Top of the Lake) and Rob Lowe (Behind the Candelabra)

Will be: Cromwell, Tambor, Lowe, Dan Akroyd (Behind the Candelabra) and James Woods (Mary and Martha)

My winner: James Cromwell

Likely winner: Cromwell

This category has a bunch of intrigue because Cromwell is the front-runner but has many famous names running along with him. Tambor and Cromwell were so superb in their roles though that I would have a tough time seeing one of the more famous Hollywood folks comes in a steal the thunder.

Dark horses: Lowe and Woods could both ride their Hollywood appeal to a trophy. Lowe has always been a favorite of the Emmys, so it will be interesting to see if he can spring an upset here.

Best Supporting Actress Movie/Miniseries

Should be: Sarah Paulson (American Horror Story: Asylum), Lily Rabe (American Horror Story: Asylum), Holly Hunter (Top of the Lake), Ellen Burstyn (Political Animals) and Phylicia Rashad (Steel Magnolias)

Will be: Paulson, Rabe, Hunter, Burstyn and Alfre Woodard (Steel Magnoilias)

My winner: Paulson

Likely winner: Hunter

This is the first category with no clear favorite in the movie/miniseries genre. Paulson and Hunter are running neck and neck and either could easily walk out with an Emmy. Paulson was another amazing part to the great acting cast on AHS:A. Without her back-and-forth with Zachary Quinto and Jessica Lange the show simply would not be the same. So, she is my choice, giving three acting Emmys to AHS:A on my watch.

Dark horse: Burstyn is a real dark horse here. As far as buzz goes Political Animals has pretty much lost all of it and it was not brought back for a second season. But Burstyn was widely regarded as the highlight of the show and will have an outside shot at sneaking past Paulson and Hunter.

My 2013 Emmy Roundup: Comedy

It is the most wonderful time of the year for TV aficionados. It is Primetime Emmy season. Which means it is also time for the experts to throw out all their predictions.

Since Comedy is pretty much my weak spot in my television repertoire, I figured I would cover all of the categories (Comedy Series, Comedy Actress, Comedy Supporting Actress, Comedy Actor and Comedy Supporting Actor) all in one post. The Miniseries/TV Special category will get the same treatment, but the Drama categories will all get their own posts.

So ... here we go ...

2013 Primetime Emmys

Comedy Series
Should be: Modern Family, House of Lies, Archer, Louie, Big Bang Theory, Arrested Development
Will be: Modern Family, Veep, Big Bang Theory, Arrested Development, Girls, 30 Rock
My winner: Archer

Likely winner: Modern Family

A very tough category. For me, it came down to what show makes me laugh the most, and that is not even close. Archer is the funniest show on television right now. It is smart, true to its characters and is extremely addictive. Modern Family has slipped into a tough spot of trying to remain fresh, but stay true ... a very tough spot to be in. I have no problem with them winning the Emmy since there is no chance that Archer gets recognized with a nomination ... but for me ... Archer is as good as any other comedy on television right now.

Dark horses: Arrested Development and Veep could both surprise because they have already received Emmy love before. Girls is definitely on the downswing in ratings and critical reception, so don't expect it to steal the spotlight.

Comedy Actor
Should be: Don Cheadle, David Duchovny, Alec Baldwin, Louis C.K., Jason Bateman, Matt Leblanc
Will be: Alec Baldwin, Don Cheadle, Louis C.K., Jim Parsons, Jon Cryer, Jason Bateman
My winner: Don Cheadle
Likely winner: Alec Baldwin

This category is a virtual lock with Baldwin making his last appearance for 30 Rock, but Jon Cryer shocked the world last year with his win and could pull the upset again. I feel that Duchovny deserves recognition for another fantastic year on Californication, but he almost certainly will not get a nomination.

Dark horses: Jon Cryer is definitely a possible surprise again. But I would think Louis C.K. is starting to get a ton of recognition and could finally spring the upset.

Comedy Actress
Should be: Tina Fey, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Amy Poehler, Martha Plimpton, Edie Falco, Melissa McCarthy
Will be: Tina Fey, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Amy Poehler, Edie Falco, Lena Dunham, Zooey Deschanel
My winner: Edie Falco
Likely winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

This category is a tough one because it is a pretty clear list of only about eight contenders. When it comes to acting chops, there is a ton here, but Edie Falco is clearly the best of the bunch, But the Emmy voters have never liked an individual actress like they like JLD. Expect the Veep star to walk away with another trophy.

Dark horses: Tina Fey could sweep in with the sentimental vote as 30 Rock heads off of television.

Comedy Supporting Actor
Should be: Eric Stonestreet, Ty Burrell, Ed O'Neill, Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Will Arnett, Jeffrey Tambor
Will be: Eric Stonestreet, Ty Burrell, Ed O'Neill, Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Jeffrey Tambor, Max Greenfield
My winner: Jesse Tyler Ferguson
Likely winner: Ty Burrell

This is just one of the two Modern Family dominated acting categories. Honestly, any of the four on that show could win and I would be fine with it, but Will Arnett and Jeffrey Tambor on are great on Arrested Development and part of the reason the show was able to keep its charm after all of these years.

Dark horses: Jeffrey Tambor is the only guy who seems to have a chance to swoop in and steal the Emmy from the Modern Family conglomerate.

Comedy Supporting Actress
Should be: Sofia Vergara, Julie Bowen, Mayim Bialik, Jessica Walter, Kate McKinnon, Anna Chlumsky
Will be: Sofia Vergara, Julie Bowen, Mayim Bialik, Jessica Walter, Kaley Cuoco, Jane Krakowski
My winner: Jessica Walter
Likely winner: Julie Bowen

Another tough category because there are not enough good choices. Modern Family should have little trouble winning this one as Julie Bowen continues to decorate her mantle, but Jessica Walter is so fantastic on Arrested Development that should would be my choice. 

Dark horses: Mayim Bialik could easily swoop in and take the win here as her name recognition makes her attractive to some voters' pencil marks.